EUR/USD analysis: waiting mode ahead of trade war fresh clues, employment data

The EUR/USD pair is little changed by the end of Thursday in the 1.1620 price zone, although it managed to peak at 1.1658 a new high for the week. The advance took place in Asian hours as a better market mood dented demand for the greenback. The pair made a second attempt to advance and flirted with the mentioned high following the release of US employment figures, as the ADP survey disappointed by informing that the private sector added 163,000 new jobs vs. the 190K expected or the 217K previous. Also, missing expectations were Q2 Nonfarm Productivity, up 2.9% and Unit Labor Costs, down 1.0%. The only positive line came from weekly unemployment claims, down to 203K its lowest since 1969. Markit reported that the final Services PMI for August was 54.8, while the Composite one came in at 54.7, both suffering downward revisions. The official ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, however, came in better-than-expected at 58.5.
The market is now waiting for fresh headlines about the US-China trade war, as China menaced to retaliate if the US moved forward on its plans for tariffs on $200bn on Chinese goods. Speculative interest is also sidelined ahead of the US Nonfarm Payroll monthly employment report, to be out this Friday. The country is expected to have added 191K new jobs in August, while the unemployment rate is seen decreasing to 3.8%. Also this Friday, the EU will release Q2 GDP, expected to show a 0.4% growth in the three months to June.
The pair failed twice to surpass the 23.6% retracement of the August rally, trading pretty much flat for the day. The short-term picture is mildly positive, as the pair is trading above all of its moving averages, finding intraday support around its 20 SMA. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart hold in positive territory, the Momentum losing upward strength and the RSI grinding lower, currently at 51, indicating limited buying interest. The pair would need to break the resistance at 1.1660 to gain additional upward momentum, while the risk will skew to the downside on a break below 1.1550.

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